Outside the hurricane cone does not mean outside the danger
The cone describes uncertainty in the storm center’s track, not the full reach of its impacts.
The edge of a hurricane forecast cone is not a boundary between danger and safety. NOAA explains that a tropical cyclone’s impacts can reach well inland and beyond the cone.
The National Hurricane Center’s track cone represents the probable path of the storm’s center. It is not a map of every place that could experience wind, flooding or other hazardous weather.
That distinction matters when a forecast shifts. A community outside the shaded area can still face serious conditions, while a point on the center line is not a guaranteed landfall location.
NOAA announced additional changes for the 2026 season, including inland tropical-storm and hurricane watches and warnings on the cone graphic. It also described an experimental cone using ellipses to represent uncertainty in both the speed and direction of the forecast track.
Reading the cone together with official warnings and impact forecasts gives a fuller picture than following a single line. The center’s likely location is one part of the forecast; the area affected by the storm can be much larger.